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Messages - Vernon Estes

#361
Up For Auction / Re: 66 on CL? 35k
February 06, 2018, 11:36:05 PM
I got an email yesterday from a "collector" looking to trade his Ferrari 212 Export Barchetta for one of the cars on my site.

I think it's legit.  Guy said said he only needed my social, home address, credit card number, and a copy of my title so he could verify that I was for real.

Think Im making one hell of a trade!

#362
6S018, factory drag unit, currently under restoration with its new owner



#363
6S1497



#364
6S1536, original paint "survivor" type car



#365
6S825, first Shelby I ever owned, currently being restored ...sapphire blue hertz car when new





#366
6S145

#367
Figured I would add some photos of cars I have owned or sold to keep this thread going!

6S2385, one of the continuation convertibles

#368
Quote from: Shelby_0022 on January 23, 2018, 08:06:37 PM

I couldn't agree more, Vern.  BTW - the lack sleep induced by the "Little Estes" doesn't seem to be clouding your thinking!  Congrats again!


Thanks dude!...yea it just depends on what day you catch me..the little stinker loves to sleep all the time...except when shes supposed to be sleep!!  ;D

#369
Quote from: Bob Gaines on January 21, 2018, 12:31:39 PM
Quote from: Bill on January 21, 2018, 09:27:34 AM
Quote from: shelbymann1970 on January 21, 2018, 07:02:55 AM
When re-signing up I had talked to Bill via messenger and he asked that I try and use my same user name and not poach anyone elses so I didn't want to screw Gary Boehnlein by poaching his name  ;D  so I went with Shelbymann which is the same on many other forums so it transcends thru. Gary

Gary,

   I think I was more worried about you or someone else with nefarious reasons to be signing up as Bob Gaines  ;)
Vern was already blocked trying .  :D

You have to admit, It would have been funny.

Just wanted to be you for a day!!!
#370
I tend to agree with Bigfoot that some of the numbers mentioned here sound aggressive...but I think also some might possibly be confusing carryover values with other 66 values?

My general opinion...carryovers are easily high 100s to low 200k cars right now. Really good carryovers can go in the mid 2s. Other 66s, generally hertz cars can range from 100k-145k depending on the quality of an automatic car..factory 4 speed cars are obviously much more. Automatic 66 non hertz cars are about the same or maybe a bit more than the equivalent hertz car. Factory 4 speed 66s tend to range from what I see from 140-175k for most cars.

Keep in mind, the prices i am quoting are for nicely restored cars that can also be driven. Concours cars are more and so are totally unrestored cars. The better unrestored car the higher the price. Just a lot of moving parts to consider.

I will say that the $200k assumed above would be tough to get for a late 66, even in concours spec. Before the forum went down, an early to mid production over ride traction bar car in red which was concours condition was listed at either 185k or 195k, does anyone remember? Seemed like a nice car, none of my business what it ended up bringing, but that is a good comparison to make. An earlier 66 is technically going to be better than a later one for market value (even though Ill be the first to debate how much serial number really matters unless we are talking carryovers).  $200k is just a tough number to get to on a 66 other than a carryover unless the car is a truly spectacular restoration which costs lots of $$$ to do above and beyond your typical resto which itself can be very expensive. 

Also, rarely does the costs of car+restoration costs= end value equation actually work. If that were true, then mathematically the end value-restoration costs= costs to buy the project car. Often times a project is worth more than this equation would imply.

Just this guy's 2 cents..

Vern
#371
1965 GT350/R-Model / Re: 5S199 at BJ Scottsdale
January 23, 2018, 05:22:27 PM
Quote from: 2112 on January 23, 2018, 04:52:19 PM
I guess that answers the question I had.

To paraphrase, the top money is still there if the car is truly assmeblyline/concours perfect.

I sure don't have a problem with that. Getting them that way is a monumental expenditure of time and money and expertise.

If I were to lament anything, that would be that a rising tide doesn't seem to raise all boats. Meaning, if top cars are on the increase, mid level cars (appropriately described) are also on the increase, albeit on a different curve.

I don't have a desire to have a concours car, and certainly don't want one by just stroking a check, but it would be comforting for those of us with drivers to think that the money we did spend was at the very least, not depreciating more, and possibly even appreciating a bit.

At least that is my opinion.

I would actually add that there is a change which has been going on in the market for the last few years. In my experience, a car doesn't have to be a concours car to bring the highest retail values. The cars which are bringing the most money right now are the most honest, most well documented, and most original examples.  Purchasers also prefer cars which run and drive like they should, even if the car is or used to be a concours car. The last three concours level cars I have sold immediately had radials mounted and are now being driven.

It used to be that a concours correct car was automatically going to be at the top of the value curve. While that is still often true, there is a lot more that goes into a purchaser's consideration now...originality (how much of the original car is still there) being the top concern IMHO

And a rising tide certainly does lift all boats for sure.

Kind regards,
Vern

#372
1965 GT350/R-Model / Re: 5S199 at BJ Scottsdale
January 23, 2018, 02:43:20 PM
Quote from: 2112 on January 23, 2018, 02:11:02 AM
Just curious about the descriptive "landmine".

Does that mean a car that not concours quality or does it mean a car resurrected from a heap of rust or significant accident damage?

I use the term "landmine" to describe a car which reads as one way in a reference source...let's say, for the sake of discussion, an auction catalog...when those who have done their homework, have seen pre-restoration photos, and/or have spoken with a past owner or restorer etc etc, know the car to be a completely different level of originality than portrayed by those attempting to sell the car.   In short, a car which is up for grabs and can easily be purchased by someone without that person being aware of the level of originality (or lack there of) of a certain car because published portrayal of the car so heavily conflicts with reality.  To be quite frank, the old forum itself even had valuable discussion revolving around one of the cars being offered in Scottsdale in particular. The forum thread from years ago was not available to the general purchasing public because the old forum went down and I guess will never be available.

Sometimes the marketing materials for these cars read as such a far cry from the truth that those who know better are either crying from laughter or stricken with fear/disgust by the end of the description.

Sorry to sound so negative...but the reality of this hobby is that there is a very dishonest side to it. This weekend in Scottsdale there were not many 65-66 cars up for grabs and so when 2-3 show up and are really messy cars...the results are heavily skewed downwards on a weekend which is generally used as a yardstick for the overall health of the market. And its a revolving downward spiral because the low results on the bad cars lead buyers in AZ to be hesitant to bid generously on the good cars that show up. In this particular case, all I am saying is that the sale results in AZ on 65-66 cars is not indicative of what I see every week on the private market for these cars. The market is and will continue to be strong for good cars. This isnt my opinion alone...other guys (who usually dont post on forums) but are heavily involved/sell and broker many cars in the 65-67 market feel the same way.

And, for the record, readers should keep in mind that while some good 65-66s show up at public auction...these are cars which have plenty of qualified and serious buyers waiting to purchase them on the private market. Good, air-tight cars don't need auction houses. That's not to say that some cars that go to auction arent great examples (there are plenty every year that come to public auction for an array of reasons) but "so-so" examples and the cars of the scary variety sure are more prevalent on the public auction circuit...because they are remarkably difficult to sell on the private market.  Easier for people to offload those examples onto someone who has indulged a bit too much at the bidder's bar..

Kind regards,
Vern

PS- just wanted to plainly state again that my posts are not referring or responding particularly to #199. My posts are largely in response to the original poster's question about whether the results in AZ are indicators of a softening market overall. Im trying to convey that there are many other factors at play here and, as Bob said, the quality and originality of cars can vary greatly. So sale results of a few don't indicate a wider trend, at least not that I am seeing.
#373
Up For Auction / Re: 6S001 at BJ
January 23, 2018, 12:37:16 PM
Quote from: sfm5s081 on January 23, 2018, 12:06:24 PM
I think the expectations were the car was going to bring more than $1m! Then again, the R model should have brought a lot more

I think a 550 hammer and 605 all in price represents a strong and appropriate price for a very important car. Dont know why anyone would have expected a street spec car to bring over $1m personally.

The hammer also represents a strong profit on the car from its sale a year or so ago at Worldwide where it brought in the high 300s hammer price.

Kind regards,
Vern
#374
1965 GT350/R-Model / Re: 5S199 at BJ Scottsdale
January 23, 2018, 12:43:41 AM
The 65-66 market is remarkably strong for good examples, just as it has been for the last 3 years.  Great cars are still, and will continue to, bring great money. Right now, I have a number of buyers who are ready to pay strong money for great 65s specifically and I have sold 2 65s in the past month.

As things pertain to Scottsdale, yes, the prices bid for some of the 65/66 offerings were lower than typical.

With that said, it might be more relevant to look to the quality/originality of the 65/66 offerings from the various auction houses this weekend in Scottsdale as a possible reason for the low results.  A little bit of homework might just leave you a little unimpressed.  As a matter of fact, the percentage of truly scary examples for sale in one weekend in close proximity to each over was mind-boggling. You can always expect one landmine to be lurking in scottsdale any given year but this year there were more than 2. Some of those cars actually brought, or were bid to, remarkably high prices considering what the cars actually are. As an aside, I am not referring specifically to 199 or any other car..certainly not naming serial numbers when I've got no skin in the game.

As Gump said, "that's all I've got to say about that"

Kind regards,
Vern
#375
Hey dudes!

Unfortunately I never kept a copy of the guide because I never considered that the forum would go anywhere!

I can easily post another one, just takes some time. Stay tuned and a new and improved owners manual guide will be posted at some point.

Sorry guys, wish it was as easy as copy paste..

Kind regards,
Vern (new username with a space and capital letters!..always wanted to do that..i feel so alive)